Economic outlook is worsening and Trump is getting blamed, CNBC survey finds
The public is as depressed about the economy as it has been since the years just after the pandemic, according to the All-America Economic Survey.
The public is as depressed about the economy as it has been since the years just after the pandemic, according to the All-America Economic Survey.
Despite a booming stock market and improving inflation numbers, the public is as depressed about the economy as it has been since the years just after the pandemic and increasingly concerned about the cost of everyday goods, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
The result: continued deeply negative approval numbers for President Donald Trump yet only a modest advantage for Democrats when it comes to the public's preference for control of Congress.
The survey of 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, found that 61% of the public is pessimistic about the current state of the econom y and about the outlook for the future. That is the highest percentage since December 2023, when the country was just emerging from the pandemic-era inflation. Only 25% are optimistic about the economy now and for the future.
"More voters expect things to get worse by a 41/29% margin, leaving the electorate in a distinctly sour mood heading into the midterm election cycle,'' said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollsters for the survey.
In response to higher prices, 47% of the public report cutting back on essential items, like food and medical care, up six points from the April survey.
Two-thirds say they are reducing purchases of non-essentials, like eating out and entertainment, up 5 points. Americans also say they are reducing travel and using credit cards in greater percentages than they did in April.
These numbers come amid a recent decline in oil and gasoline prices and stand in contrast to steady and modest growth reported in national retail sales.
But the national numbers could be driven by spending from the wealthy. The All-America survey finds that 60% of those with incomes below $30,000 are reducing their outlays for essentials, compared to just 35% of those with incomes above $100,000.
The survey's Democratic and Republican pollsters both say the modest drop in gasoline prices over the past several weeks is not enough to offset the lingering effects of both the recent and past surges in prices.
"People are still paying a lot more for stuff than they were a year and a half ago, two years ago, and that's recent enough in memory that it still hurts and it still drives a lot of anger,'' said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey. "When gas prices drop 50 cents for a month, that's just not enough to make up the difference."
Trump's approval ratings remain deeply underwater, though largely unchanged from the CNBC April survey.
The latest survey found the president's net approval rating at 40%, with 59% disapproving, 1 point worse than the April survey. Sixty percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, compared with 38% approving. Both changes are within the poll's margin of error but, at -22, place the president the most underwater he has been in his political career.
The survey also found the public disapproving of Trump's handling of the war with Iran by a 63% to 35% margin, and his handling of inflation and the cost of living by a 68% to 31% margin.
Still the Democratic Party has just a 4-point advantage on congressional preference, unchanged from April, as it appears the party is only benefitting modestly from the dissatisfaction with the economy and the Iran war.
"It means Democrats have an advantage at this point now, five months out from the election, but it's not an overwhelming advantage," Campbell said. "It doesn't point to a wave at the moment and I think that's what my baseline is."
Both pollsters pointed to a sharply divided electorate being "locked into" their parties and reluctant to switch sides however much concern they may have with the economy. The survey found, for example, partisans digging in and increasing their support for their chosen party compared to April, largely offsetting each other and leading to no change in the overall preference for congressional control.
It's also an environment where each party has been defining the other by their extremes and having some success doing so.
