When will mortgage rates go down again? A two-month stall continues.

Mortgage rates have held within fractions of 6.5% for the better part of two months. While that makes locking a rate easy, it may disappoint borrowers seeking a home loan rate closer to or below 6%. What will it take for mortgage rates to move lower?

As of July 16, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.55%. This is six basis points higher than last week. At this time in July 2025, mortgage rates averaged 6.75%, 20 basis points higher

The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate this week was 5.932%, up 11 basis points from last week, and only one basis point higher than this time last year.

Here's the Freddie Mac data on mortgage rates for the past 52 weeks as of July 9, 2026:

15-year fixed-rate mortgage: 5.35% to 5.93%Will mortgage rates trend down by the end of 2026?

While short-term lending rates closely follow the fed funds rate, mortgage rates more closely follow the 10-year Treasury yield . As of July 15, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.55% — compared to 4.47% a year prior.

Now, you're probably wondering why today's mortgage rates aren't in the 4% range , right?

To determine current mortgage rates , lenders add a "spread" to the 10-year Treasury yield. The spread is simply the difference between the rates consumers pay and the 10-year Treasury rate. Without getting too much into the weeds, charging a spread helps mortgage lenders cover costs associated with making loans to the public and the risk of providing such loans.

For example, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.55%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.55% — a spread of 2.00 percentage points. A year ago, the 30-year rate was 6.75%, and the 10-year yield was 4.47%, resulting in a spread of 2.28 percentage points. Today's spread is fractionally smaller, which is one reason mortgage rates are only slightly lower now.

The Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate three times in 2025, but the central bank has been on hold so far in 2026, including its most recent meeting on June 17. So, what does this mean for mortgage rates in the upcoming year?

That federal funds rate tends to directly influence rates on shorter-term lending. While mortgage rates aren't directly based on the fed funds rate, they typically mirror fed fund rate trends. So, if the fed funds rate goes up, mortgage rates will likely follow. The inverse is also true.

The Fed — the common nickname for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC ) — has a new chairman, Kevin Warsh, but the same game plan: keep rates unchanged for now. At this point, Wall Street traders aren't expecting another rate cut this year; in fact, there are increasing odds of a rate hike as the next move, even as early as September.

Dig deeper into how the Federal Reserve affects mortgage rates.

In short, no. You shouldn't necessarily wait to buy a home until mortgage rates drop below 6% or lower. Mortgage rates are just one part of the affordability equation. You also have to consider home prices, a factor of housing supply and demand.

The current housing market is in a crunch. To put it simply, buyers outnumber homes for sale, especially homes in price ranges accessible to the first-time home buyer . When supply and demand are out of balance like this, home prices tend to remain high since sellers know they'll have multiple buyers interested.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median sale price of single-family homes has mostly trended upward since Q1 of 2009. At that time, the median sale price was $208,400. The median price had risen to $405,300 by Q4 2025.

Even in the event of a recession , prospective buyers likely won't see much relief. If interest rates drop like they tend to do in recessions, that will increase the number of people looking to buy and lock in a lower interest rate. That drives up demand for the already limited supply of homes.