When will mortgage rates go down again? A stable trend holds.

Mortgage rates are at a calm cruising altitude. While that makes locking a rate easy, it may disappoint borrowers seeking a home loan rate closer to or below 6%. What will it take for mortgage rates to move lower?

As of July 9, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.49%. This is six basis points higher than last week. At this time in July 2025, mortgage rates averaged 6.72%, 23 basis points higher

The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate this week was 5.82%. This is up three basis points from last week, and only four basis points lower than this time last year.

Here's the Freddie Mac data on mortgage rates for the past 52 weeks as of July 9, 2026:

Mortgage rates generally move in unison with the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield has been wavering just above and below 4.5% for twoa months, and home loan rates are following suit, with little direction either way.

Ali Wolf, chief economist at NewHomeSource, believes that many home buyers and sellers remain in a holding pattern.

"This isn't limited to existing home sales either; the majority of builders say demand is slower than expected, even with incentives being more commonplace than they were a year ago," Wolf said in a statement. "Until buyers and sellers gain more confidence in where the market is headed, both sides are likely to stay cautious, and sales activity may stay subdued."

The latest forecast from Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to be in the 6.3% to 6.4% range through 2027.

The Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate three times in 2025, but the central bank has been on hold so far in 2026, including its most recent meeting on June 17. So, what does this mean for mortgage rates in the upcoming year?

That federal funds rate tends to directly influence rates on shorter-term lending. While mortgage rates aren't directly based on the fed funds rate, they typically mirror fed fund rate trends. So, if the fed funds rate goes up, mortgage rates will likely follow. The inverse is also true.

The Fed — the common nickname for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC ) — has a new chairman, Kevin Warsh, but the same game plan: keep rates unchanged for now. At this point, Wall Street traders aren't expecting another rate cut this year; in fact, there are increasing odds of a rate hike as the next move, even as early as September.

Dig deeper into how the Federal Reserve affects mortgage rates.

While short-term lending rates closely follow the fed funds rate, mortgage rates more closely follow the 10-year Treasury yield . As of July 81, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.57% — compared to 4.35% a year prior.

Now, you're probably wondering why today's mortgage rates aren't in the 4% range , right?

To determine current mortgage rates , lenders add a "spread" to the 10-year Treasury yield. The spread is simply the difference between the rates consumers pay and the 10-year Treasury rate. Without getting too much into the weeds, charging a spread helps mortgage lenders cover costs associated with making loans to the public and the risk of providing such loans.

For example, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.49%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.57% — a spread of 1.92 percentage points. A year ago, the 30-year rate was 6.72%, and the 10-year yield was 4.35%, resulting in a spread of 2.37 percentage points. Today's spread is smaller, which is one reason mortgage rates are slightly lower now.

In short, no. You shouldn't necessarily wait to buy a home until mortgage rates drop below 6% or lower. Mortgage rates are just one part of the affordability equation. You also have to consider home prices, a factor of housing supply and demand.