'Total economic collapse' is likely in the next decade, say 42% of Americans. Here's how you can prepare
'Total economic collapse' is likely in the next decade, say 42% of Americans. Here's how you can prepare.
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A 2026 survey by YouGov found 42% of Americans believe the country will experience a "total economic collapse" within the next decade, while more than a third think a civil war is likely (1).
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That level of pessimism reflects a broader sense that multiple risks — economic, political and technological — are converging.
But what would a "total economic collapse" actually look like?
The closest historical comparison is the Great Depression. During the 1930s, U.S. unemployment approached 25%, the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value and it took decades to recover fully (2, 3).
While today's economy is far more resilient, the fear of a severe downturn is not entirely unfounded.
A combination of overlapping threats has led to increased anxiety among Americans, with one of the biggest being the growing federal debt.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, U.S. debt has reached about 100% of GDP, with deficits and interest costs continuing to rise. The group warns that without policy changes, "some form of crisis is almost inevitable" (4).
A fiscal crisis could take many forms: a financial market shock, a surge in inflation, a weakening dollar or even a gradual erosion of living standards over time.
At the same time, some economists see deeper systemic risks building.
Financial risk expert Richard Bookstaber warned in The New York Times that the next downturn could be even more severe than the 2008 financial crisis (5).
His concern is that today's financial system is tightly interconnected, linking markets, artificial intelligence (AI), supply chains and geopolitics. That means a shock in one area — such as conflict involving Iran or tensions around Taiwan — could spread quickly across the entire economy.
Clearly, energy markets have shown signs of strain in recent months. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global energy trade, have pushed oil prices higher, raising concerns about inflation and the risk of a recession (6).
Meanwhile, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence is adding another layer of uncertainty.
For instance, Citrini Research outlined a hypothetical scenario in which AI-driven job losses trigger a negative economic spiral — reducing wages, weakening consumer spending and ultimately destabilizing financial markets (7).
