Texas Instruments or ServiceNow: One Stock Has the Analyst Conviction to Soar After Earnings

ServiceNow's 43 Buy ratings dwarf TXN's split 17-17 Buy-Hold analyst book, giving NOW a decisive conviction edge heading into Wednesday's earnings.

NOW sits roughly 35% below its $142 consensus price target after a 32% year-to-date drop, offering far wider implied upside than TXN.

NOW's bullish sentiment score of 65 and four straight EPS beats outshine TXN's neutral 50 reading despite TXN carrying a 95% beat probability.

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With Texas Instruments ( NASDAQ:TXN ) and ServiceNow ( NYSE:NOW ) both reporting Q2 2026 results after market close on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, the question for investors is simple: which name is Wall Street actually leaning into ahead of the same-session report? Both stocks slipped heading into Wednesday's earnings report, with Texas Instruments off 4.9% and ServiceNow down 5.9% over the past week. Below is the head-to-head across the three dimensions that matter most going into Wednesday.

Wall Street's rating distribution tells very different stories. Texas Instruments carries 17 Buy ratings, 17 Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings, a genuinely split book that reflects lingering questions about semiconductor cyclicality and the pace of the industrial recovery.

ServiceNow's coverage is far more one-sided. Analysts have posted 43 Buy ratings, four Hold ratings, and one Sell rating, an overwhelmingly bullish tilt built around the agentic AI thesis and Now Assist net new ACV more than doubling year over year in the most recent quarter.

Texas Instruments closed at $284.07 on July 20 against an analyst consensus target of $303.59. That is a modest cushion, and with a P/E of 49, the multiple leaves little margin for a guide-down.

ServiceNow, by contrast, trades at $104.70 against an analyst target of $141.64. The gap is dramatically wider on a relative basis. NOW has been punished this year, down 31.7% year to date and 45.7% over the past year, while Texas Instruments has surged 65.7% year to date. The compressed ServiceNow valuation, at a P/E of 61, gives analysts more headroom to defend.

Winner: ServiceNow. The implied upside to consensus is materially larger.

This is where Wall Street's positioning shows up most clearly. Polymarket contracts are pricing a 95% probability that Texas Instruments beats quarterly earnings, and an 80.5% probability that Q2 analog revenue clears $4.0 billion. That confidence is grounded: Texas Instruments delivered a 23.15% EPS surprise in Q1 2026. But its composite sentiment score is 50.63 (neutral).

ServiceNow has no active prediction markets on the report, so beat odds must be inferred from track record. ServiceNow has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, including a 14.63% Q2 FY25 beat and a 13.00% Q3 FY25 beat. Its composite sentiment score is 65.18 (bullish), with a 30-day trend change of +28.33, social sentiment at 78, and Reddit conversation flipping to a very bullish 82 on July 16, driven by a viral free cash flow per share post.

Winner: NOW. Better sentiment trajectory and stronger recent beat cadence.

Three dimensions, one direction. Wall Street is favoring ServiceNow into Wednesday's report: broader Buy-rating coverage, wider price-target upside, and bullish sentiment momentum. Texas Instruments has the higher raw beat probability, but that expectation is already in the stock after a 65.7% year-to-date rally, and the balanced analyst split reflects that.

For a retirement-oriented income investor who values Texas Instruments' dividend and trailing shareholder returns, it remains the sturdier long-term holding. But if the question is which stock Wall Street is leaning into for this specific report, ServiceNow is the call. Risks cut both ways: Texas Instruments faces a high bar, while ServiceNow carries a P/E of 61 and integration risk from pending Armis and Veza deals. Wall Street's tilt is clear nonetheless. ServiceNow wins the preview.

Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.

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