Stocks Mixed on Favorable Inflation News and Chipmaker Weakness
Stocks Mixed on Favorable Inflation News and Chipmaker Weakness.
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.15%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.35%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.64%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.16%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.60%.
Stock indexes are mixed today, with the S&P 500 posting a 1-month high. The broader market garnered support from today's US economic news, which showed that June producer prices rose less than expected and the July Empire manufacturing survey rose more than expected.
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Strength in technology stocks is also positive for the broader market, following strong earnings results from ASML, which offered fresh evidence of the relentless demand for chips needed for the global artificial intelligence buildout. ASML is the only maker of sophisticated lithography machines needed to manufacture advanced semiconductors.
However, the Nasdaq 100 fell into negative territory amid weakness in chipmakers. Also, health insurance stocks are under pressure after Elevance Health plunged following its updated guidance that fell short of the second-quarter beat.
US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.7% in the week ended July 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -7.3% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +3.5%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose +7 bp to 6.65% from 6.58% in the prior week.
US Jun PPI final demand eased to +5.5% y/y from +6.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.2% y/y. Jun PPI ex food and energy rose +4.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.1% y/y.
The US Jul Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose +9.9 to 15.6, stronger than expectations of 9.2.
Dovish comments today from New York Fed President John Williams were supportive for stocks and bonds when he said, "Inflation is unquestionably too high, but there are encouraging reasons to expect that inflation has peaked and should edge down in coming quarters."
Chinese economic news was mixed for global growth prospects. On the negative side, China's Q2 GDP rose +4.3% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +4.4% y/y and the smallest increase in 3.5 years. Also, Jun new home prices fell by -0.15% m/m, marking the 37th consecutive month of declines. On the positive side, China's industrial production rose 5.3% y/y, stronger than the expected 4.6% y/y. Also, Jun retail sales unexpectedly rose +1.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.1% y/y. In addition, the Jun surveyed jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 5.0%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 5.1%.
On the negative side, geopolitical risks are ramping up, as the interim peace deal between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed. The US maintained its naval blockade of Iran and launched another wave of airstrikes on Iran today, the fifth straight day of attacks. President Trump pledged to intensify the bombardment until Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against Kuwait.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which will begin this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1's blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
The markets are discounting a 12% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.08%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.29%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.49%.
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are up +8 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -3.6 bp to 4.553%. T-notes recovered from early losses today and moved higher after US Jun producer prices rose less than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. T-notes added to their gains today when New York Fed President John Williams said, "there are encouraging reasons to expect that inflation has peaked and should edge down in coming quarters." T-notes initially moved lower on today's strength in WTI crude oil prices, which boosts inflation expectations and is bearish for T-notes.
European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1.75-month high of 3.148% and is up +0.1 bp to 3.115%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.4 bp to 4.943%.
