Shippers face tighter capacity as trucking rates hold near record highs

Truck capacity is shrinking just as shippers most need room to grow. ACT Research's June For-Hire Trucking Index shows freight rates holding near record territory while capacity keeps tightening, as Class 8 tractor sales continue running below replacement levels and new federal driver rules squeeze the labor pool. For shippers trying to expand volumes, the truck capacity shortage isn't going away soon.

The survey converts monthly carrier responses into a diffusion index, where a reading above 50 signals growth and a reading below 50 signals contraction. A flat, unchanged month registers at exactly 50.

The Freight Rate Index fell 9.5 points month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 70.2 in June, down from May's record 79.7. Even with the pullback, June's reading ranks among the strongest in the survey's nearly 17-year history. Market balance has swung decisively in favor of fleets this year, ACT Research said, adding that tight market dynamics are likely to continue to drive rates higher.

The Capacity Index climbed 1.5 points to 55.0 in June, a 43-month high, even as Class 8 sales remain below replacement levels industrywide. The gain reflects larger, well-run fleets signaling expansion rather than a broad capacity rebound. ACT Research expects expansion to accelerate further in the third and fourth quarters as spot rate gains work through to contract rates and carriers replace aging equipment with EPA'27 emissions rules in mind.

The Driver Availability Index ticked up to 34.1 in June from 32.6 in May, but remains deeply depressed. A wave of new regulations from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), including nondomiciled CDL restrictions, tighter ELD and registration fraud enforcement, and driver school closures, sent the index to a five-year low of 30.4 in April after the nondomiciled rules took effect in mid-March. The modest May and June upticks suggest near-term stabilization, but ACT Research expects additional scarcity to support higher freight rates.

Fleet purchase intentions held flat month-over-month, with 47% of carriers planning equipment purchases in the next three months, below June's historical average of 53%. Two forces are holding fleets back: carrier profit margins entering 2026 sat at levels not seen since the Great Recession, gutting capital spending, and the roughly six-month lag between spot and contract rate gains left large carriers with limited margin improvement in the first quarter. ACT Research expects that gap to close as rate gains continue flowing through.

Capacity expansion should pick up further in the third and fourth quarters as spot rate gains flow through to contract rates, and carriers sate pent-up demand to replace aging equipment with one eye on EPA'27, ACT Research said.

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