IonQ vs. Rigetti: Who's Winning the $2.7 Trillion Quantum Computing Race?

Quantum computing has been a white-hot industry for investors, but who's actually winning the quantum computing race?

The answer depends on what you mean by "winning." If you're asking which company has made the most progress commercially, I think the answer is fairly straightforward: IonQ. But it's still early innings.

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If you're asking who will build the first truly useful quantum computer, that's a much more interesting question, and the truth is, it's much too early to tell that just yet.

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) spent the last year transforming itself from a quantum computing developer into something more expansive. Company management now describes IonQ as a full-stack platform spanning computing, networking, sensing, and security.

Its underlying technology differs from many competitors, including Rigetti. IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computers, a design generally associated with very high gate fidelity -- the accuracy of quantum operations -- but slower gate speeds than superconducting systems. The company reported a 2-qubit gate fidelity of 99.99% last year.

IonQ is also pushing aggressively into commercial deployment after a string of major acquisitions last year. During the first quarter of 2026, it sold the first of its newest 256-qubit system and expanded sales into more than 30 countries.

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) builds superconducting quantum processors, the same general technology pursued by companies like IBM and Alphabet . These systems operate dramatically faster than trapped-ion machines, with gate speeds measured in tens of nanoseconds. But they also require extremely complex cryogenic cooling systems operating near absolute zero and generally struggle to deliver the same level of fidelity as IonQ's trapped-ion approach.

Rigetti finally launched its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q processor and demonstrated a 2-qubit gate fidelity of 99.1%. CEO Subodh Kulkarni has said the company believes it can reach quantum advantage -- industry jargon for the point at which quantum computers outperform classical computers on commercially useful tasks -- in roughly three years if it reaches about 1,000 qubits while maintaining high fidelity and effective error mitigation.

IonQ generated $64.7 million in first-quarter revenue, a whopping 755% increase from a year earlier, while raising full-year guidance to between $260 million and $270 million. Its remaining performance obligations (RPO) -- contracted revenue that hasn't yet been recognized -- rose to a record $470 million. Perhaps most importantly, the company finished the quarter with roughly $3.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments.

To be sure, IonQ remains deeply unprofitable. Its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss guidance still calls for losses of more than $300 million this year. Management expects significant losses for the foreseeable future.

The company reported GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) profit last quarter came almost entirely from a noncash accounting adjustment rather than operating earnings.

Rigetti operates on a different scale at the moment. The company generated just $4.4 million in first-quarter revenue while ending the quarter with $569 million in cash and no debt. Like IonQ, its reported GAAP profit resulted primarily from warrant accounting rather than its core business. Rigetti also continues to rely heavily on government development contracts while working toward larger hardware sales over time.

McKinsey estimates quantum computing could eventually create between $1.3 trillion and $2.7 trillion in economic value by 2035. That's a huge opportunity, yes, but investors need to take it with a grain of salt and keep a few things in mind beyond the fact that McKinsey's is one of the more generous estimates.

First, that is the total value produced across the global economy. It's not a sales target for quantum firms. According to the same report, the slice of the pie for the producers themselves -- such as Rigetti and IonQ -- is just $60 billion to $100 billion.

Second, no one can say with any certainty when -- or even if -- true quantum advantage will be achieved at scale. It is entirely possible that a mature, revolutionary version of this technology is decades away. There are plenty of scientific voices outside the industry that are skeptical of the timelines put forth by quantum insiders.

At this point, I'd have to give the edge to IonQ, both in its technical abilities and its commercial success. That being said, I think excitement has outrun reality, and both companies are currently overvalued.