Dear SpaceX Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 23

If you own SpaceX (SPCX) stock, or you're thinking about gaining exposure, this week deserves a spot on your calendar. Thursday brings a Starship test flight that SpaceX badly needs to go well, and it's the first of three dates over the next few weeks that could move the stock in a big way.

I've watched plenty of young public companies go through their first real test after an IPO. SpaceX is about to go through three of them at once, and they're all connected. Here's what's happening and why it matters to anyone holding SPCX stock.

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SpaceX is targeting as early as July 23 for the 13th flight test of Starship, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 5:45 p.m. CT, according to a company statement. The webcast starts about 30 minutes before liftoff.

This flight carries extra weight because of what happened last time. On Flight 12, the Super Heavy booster's directional flip after stage separation was off by roughly 90 degrees, and five of its 33 engines had trouble relighting during the boostback burn. SpaceX says it has made hardware and software changes meant to resolve both problems.

The upper stage had its own issue too. About 40 seconds after separation, Starship lost one of its three vacuum Raptor engines, though the ship still managed to reach its planned suborbital path, per the company statement.

Thursday's flight will also be the first to carry next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, with SpaceX planning to deploy 20 of them and test a laser link to the broader Starlink network, the company said.

Six of those satellites carry cameras aimed at scanning Starship's heat shield, part of an ongoing effort to figure out when the ship is ready to fly straight back to the launch site instead of splashing down. The booster is also targeting an offshore landing burn in the Gulf of Mexico, while the ship aims for a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

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It is worth noting SpaceX has had a rocky stretch of launches lately. CNBC reported that a Falcon 9 mission carrying 24 Starlink satellites was scrubbed on Monday before launching successfully on Tuesday, and that last week's Starship attempt was halted after some engines failed to ignite, prompting an automatic abort.

Thursday's launch is really the appetizer. SpaceX confirmed Aug. 4 as the date of its first quarterly earnings report since going public, with the call scheduled for after market close.

SpaceX built an unusual lockup structure into its IPO, one that lets insiders start selling stock earlier than the standard 180-day wait most newly public companies use, the Motley Fool reported.

The first release of eligible shares can happen on the second full trading day after that first earnings report, which lands on Aug. 6. Bloomberg reported that as many as 911.5 million shares, worth roughly $116 billion at recent prices, become eligible for sale on that date, making it one of the largest share unlocks in market history.

A smaller, additional batch of shares could unlock early only if SPCX trades at $175.50 or higher for five of the ten sessions heading into earnings, something Bloomberg noted is unlikely given where the stock sits now.

More unlocks follow through the rest of the year, with the bulk of remaining shares becoming tradable by Dec. 9.