Creative Destruction, Momentum, SpaceX
Creative Destruction, Momentum, SpaceX.
AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won't be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration. A stronger labor market may turn the Federal Reserve's attention back toward fighting high inflation, and bond markets have noticed. Much of the market's recent movement has been driven AI-related companies, creating a stark divide between AI and everything else. Agricultural exports. Divergent paths. SpaceX.
1. Change may happen faster this time around, but the U.S. economy has reinvented itself before and can do it again:
2. Job growth has strengthened in recent months after stalling for much of 2025:
3. Two leading indicators, temporary employment and manufacturing overtime hours, are moving in the right direction:
4. Inflation breakevens have continued to move higher despite the ceasefire with Iran:
5. Long treasury yields are making new highs across developed economies:
6. Skyrocketing chip prices may support the AI trade, but they also reverse a multi-decade trend of deflation that has benefited an increasingly digitized economy:
7. Historically, high levels of CAPEX have not consistently rewarded shareholders:
8. AI-related issuances have accounted for the majority of capital raised this year:
9. Over the past two months, momentum stocks have outperformed global markets by the largest spread on record:
10. If daily returns were normally distributed (they aren't, but assume so for illustration), you'd expect a 5σ move roughly once every 6,800 years of trading days:
11. Agricultural imports to China are currently running well below historical norms:
12. The U.S. may be among the countries best insulated from the economic fallout of the war with Iran:
13. SpaceX is targeting one of the largest IPOs of all time, across multiple metrics:
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