As SpaceX preps for big Starship launch, Evercore initiates with Outperform rating

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SpaceX ( SPCX ) will attempt the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket no earlier than Thursday, just as another Wall Street bank is getting bullish on the company.

The rocket, the largest and most powerful ever built, is scheduled to lift off from Starbase, Texas, around 6:45 p.m. EDT . Flight 13 is the second launch of Starship's Version 3, a bigger, more powerful design that debuted less than two months ago. On the last launch, back in May, the Super Heavy booster suffered heat damage during separation, when it was pushed into an unexpected position, and then failed its return when some of its engines didn't re-ignite. The booster was lost.

SpaceX has been launching and refining the vehicle since 2023, and it remains key to the company's plans for heavy-lift launch, satellite deployment, and eventually travel to the Moon and Mars.

The flight comes as SpaceX shares have struggled since the company went public on June 12. The stock has fallen nearly 7% over the past five days and is down more than 38% from its peak of $225.64.

But investment bank Evercore ISI is betting the selloff is overdone. On Tuesday, the firm initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, implying roughly 65% upside from the stock's close of $139.14.

How does SpaceX's integrated business model create competitive advantages?

Analyst Kutgun Maral called SpaceX "an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity," and one whose parts reinforce one another. "[SpaceX is] a single, vertically integrated machine that turned reusable, low-cost launch into a near-monopoly on access to orbit, used that edge to build Starlink into a scaled, cash generative connectivity franchise, and is now pointing the same flywheel at AI infrastructure," he wrote.

Similar to other analysts, Maral notes SpaceX's big opportunities in launch, the Starlink broadband network, satellite-to-phone mobile service, terrestrial computing, and eventually, orbital data centers, describing all five as connected businesses.

Evercore's model has revenue and EBITDA compounding at 106% and 157% respectively through 2028, with operating margins widening from 35% to 69% over the same stretch. Maral said he thinks "growth can accelerate rather than fade as the decade wears on."

While overall bullish, Maral caveats his enthusiasm with the warning that "there is a great deal left to prove out." And Thursday's Starship launch is one big part of the thesis.

Maral notes Starship has yet to prove it can scale, with its first operational payload targeted for the second half of this year. Starlink's broadband and mobile offerings need to gain traction, the viability of orbital computing will not be tested until 2029 or later, and SpaceX's Grok and Cursor AI products have to win a genuine foothold against entrenched enterprise rivals.

Even so, Maral wrote, "if management delivers most of this, the setup over the next several years looks compelling."

Pras Subramanian is Lead Transportation Reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram .

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