Argus Warns SpaceX Stock Faces Multiyear Market Re-Rating Shock

Valued at a market cap of roughly $2.25 trillion, SpaceX (SPCX) owns and operates self-landing rockets, a satellite internet network that reaches nearly every corner of the planet, as well as a fast-growing artificial intelligence business.

However, one of Wall Street's respected independent research firms believes the space-tech stock is grossly overvalued and poised for a massive pullback.

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Argus just issued its first-ever rating on SPCX stock. And the message underneath that rating is more complicated than a simple "buy" or "sell" call.

Argus initiated coverage of Space Exploration Technologies with a "Hold" rating on June 26.

Argus said SpaceX's IPO valuation implies a price-to-sales multiple near 95 times its 2025 revenue.

A high multiple suggests investors are paying a steep premium today for growth that has not yet fully shown up in profits.

SpaceX is growing its top line rapidly but is yet to turn profitable. Argus described the company's operating plan as a mix of a mature infrastructure business and a venture-style growth bet.

The investment firm also believes it could take years for SpaceX's valuation multiple to settle into a more normal range. Argus flagged volatility as a near-term risk, given SPCX stock slid more than 20% from all-time highs last week.

Shares have swung sharply since the debut, partly because relatively few shares are available to trade and partly because SpaceX was quickly added to several major stock indexes, according to Insider Monkey , a combination that amplifies price swings in both directions.

Argus said it would consider upgrading the stock if shares fall sharply for reasons unrelated to the business itself, or if revenue and earnings growth accelerate faster than expected.

SpaceX was founded in 2002 with a single goal: to make rockets reusable and cut the cost of reaching space.

SpaceX landed its first booster in 2015, while re-flying one in 2017. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said the Falcon 9 rocket can now carry 23 metric tons to orbit, and the newer Starship vehicle is approaching 100 metric tons of capacity.

The first is Starlink, the company's satellite internet network. Johnsen said the network passed 10.3 million users by the end of the first quarter of 2026, more than double the user count from a year earlier, and now reaches over 164 countries.

The second is artificial intelligence. SpaceX built a large data center called Colossus 2 and recently struck a hosting deal with Anthropic, along with a separate coding partnership with Cursor, a company that SpaceX is set to acquire for $60 billion.

SpaceX generated close to $19 billion in revenue last year, up more than 30% from the prior year, with almost $7 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.