Shell Flags Stronger Trading Despite Middle East Impact on Q2 Gas Output

Shell said its integrated gas trading and optimization business is expected to perform significantly better than in the first quarter, helping offset lower production caused by the Middle East conflict, according to its second-quarter trading update released ahead of earnings on July 30.

The company forecast integrated gas production of 610,000-650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down sharply from 909,000 boe/d in the first quarter, citing the impact of the conflict on Qatari volumes. LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to total 7.4-7.8 million tonnes, versus 7.9 million tonnes in the prior quarter.

Shell also expects upstream production of 1.75 million-1.85 million boe/d, broadly in line with the previous quarter, while marketing adjusted earnings are projected to be similar to Q1.

In its chemicals and products business, Shell raised its indicative refining margin outlook to about $20 per barrel from $17 per barrel in the first quarter, while indicative chemicals margins are expected to improve to around $240 per tonne from $139 per tonne. However, the company cautioned that actual realized margins remain below calculated benchmark margins because of market dislocations. Trading and optimization results in the segment are expected to be in line with the previous quarter.

At the group level, Shell said cash flow from operations will benefit from a $1 billion-$6 billion working capital inflow, reflecting the effects of unprecedented commodity price volatility. Tax payments are expected to total $2.6 billion-$3.4 billion, while financial derivative movements are projected to range from a $1 billion loss to a $4 billion gain.

The updated guidance follows a period of heightened volatility in global energy markets after conflict in the Middle East disrupted LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz and reduced Qatari supply. Shell said its full-year price and margin sensitivities may not reflect realized quarterly margins because of ongoing market disruptions.

Shell is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 30, with analyst consensus due to be published on July 22.

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Sinergia Empresarial continuará el seguimiento de esta información sobre shell Flags Stronger Trading Despite Middle East Impact on Q2 Gas Output y ampliará la cobertura conforme se confirmen nuevos elementos relevantes para el ecosistema empresarial.